Oscillating Existing Home Sales But Continued Rising Price - September 2021

Existing Home Sales September 2021 – National Association of Realtors® (NAR) Box Score

As of September 2021

Seasonally Adjusted Annualized Sales Numbers (SAAR)

6.29 million SAAR as of September 2021
up 7.0 percent sequentially from August 2021 from 5.88 million
down 2.3 percent year-over-year from 6.44 million in September 2020

Monthly Sales – raw data not seasonally adjusted

548,000 for the month of September 2021
down 4.9 percent sequentially versus the 576,000 sales in August 2021
down 2.7 percent versus the 563,000 sales in September 2020

Sales Trailing 12-Months – raw data not seasonally adjusted

6.184 million for the 12-months ending September 2021 – raw data not seasonally adjusted
down 0.2 percent vs 12-months ending August 2021 of 6.199 million
up 15.8 percent vs 12-months ending September 2020 of 5.340 million

Sales Year-to-Date – raw data not seasonally adjusted

Median Price – September 2021 due to historic monthly seasonality of existing home prices, only a year-over-year comparison is made

$352,800 – not seasonally adjusted
up 13.3 percent vs $311,500 September 2020

Average Price – September 2021 due to historic monthly seasonality of existing home prices, only a year-over-year comparison is made

$372,600 – not seasonally adjusted
up 8.6 percent vs $343,100 recorded in September 2020

Single-Family Sales by Price and Median Days on the Market Prior to an Accepted Purchase Contract – sample data not seasonally adjusted

Primary reason that sales priced $250,000 and less are down is due to minimal inventory

Months Inventory – with 6.0 months inventory considered normal on an historical perspective – Seasonally Adjusted

Graphs

Other Details Included in the NAR September 2021 Release

Median price has risen 115 consecutive months on a year-over-year basis

Inventory slipped 0.8 percent from August 2021 to September 2021 to 1.27 million active listings, down 13.0 percent from the 1.46 million listings available in September 2020
Months Inventory at the end of September 2021 was 2.4 months (not seasonally adjusted), down 7.7 percent from 2.7 months in September 2020

Typical property was on the market 17 days prior to an accepted purchase contract, unchanged from the prior month but down from 21 days 1-year ago

86 percent of homes closed in September 2021 were on the market less than one month before going under contract

1st time homebuyers accounted for 28 percent of September closings, down from 31 percent one-year ago. Continuing erosion of affordability will no doubt negatively impact 1st-time homebuyers ability to access the great American dream given rising prices and rising interest rates
Investors purchased 13 percent of all existing home sales in September 2021, down from 15 percent in September 2021 but up slightly from 12 percent 1-year ago
Buyers paid all-cash (no mortgage loan involved) in almost one-in-four closings (23%) up from 18 percent one-year ago

Distressed sales – foreclosures and short sales -- made up less than 1 percent of September 2021 transactions and was unchanged from the prior month & year-over-year. Most homeowners unable to make their mortgage payments today merely need to list the property with a real estate agent and prepare to walk with equity from a closing sometime in the next 30 to 60 days in this tight housing market

To read the entire NAR press release and access the underlying data click https://www.nar.realtor/newsroom/existing-home-sales-ascend-7-0-in-september

Housing continues to have among the greatest intrinsic value in our lifetimes as we have spent more time ever at home and that continues as the pandemic is not yet behind us. Rising rates, however, will have a negative impact on both sales and price gains.

Ted